Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.