Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.